U.S. cancer diagnoses will jump 45 percent by 2030
U.S. cancer diagnoses will jump 45 percent by 2030
April 29th, 2009 by Valerie ChavezCHICAGO (Reuters) - The number of new cancer cases diagnosed each
year will jump 45 percent in the next two decades to 2.3 million up
from 1.6 million in 2010, affecting many more older adults and
minorities, U.S. researchers predicted on Wednesday.
Using demographic trends, researchers at the University of Texas
project a 67 percent increase in the number of adults 65 and older will
be diagnosed with cancer in 2030, rising to 1.6 million in 2030 from 1
million in 2010.
And they foresee a doubling in the number of non-whites who will be
diagnosed with cancer by then, rising to 660,000 cases a year from
330,000.
The data assume that rates of cancer would remain about the same.
"This is basically saying how will our population changes impact the
number of people getting cancer," Dr. Ben Smith of the university's
M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, said in a telephone interview.
"In 2030, 70 percent of all cancers will be diagnosed in the elderly
and 28 percent in minorities, and the number of older adults diagnosed
with cancer will be the same as the total number of Americans diagnosed
with cancer in 2010," he said.
Smith said that the number and types of cancers expected to increase
-- such as liver, stomach and pancreas -- are especially deadly.
"Currently, we don't have the health care infrastructure to be able
to accommodate the expected surge in cancer diagnoses," Smith, whose
findings appear in the Journal of Clinical Oncology, said in a
telephone interview.
He pointed to data from the American Society of Clinical Oncology
that suggests 40 percent of cancer specialists in the United States are
55 and older and many will retire in the next decade or so.
"The rate of new oncologists is not sufficient to keep pace with the
rate of retirement," Smith said, adding that by 2030, there will be a
shortage of 3,800 oncologists. "That is a great concern."
SHIFT IN DISEASE
For the study, Smith and his team used current the United States
Census Bureau statistics and cancer incidence rates to look at how
changes in the population will affect the number of people getting
cancer.
He found a major shift in new cancers being diagnosed in older
adults and minorities -- segments of the population projected to grow
rapidly.
"Both older adults and minorities are segments of the patient
population that are particularly vulnerable to receiving sub-optimal
medical care," Smith said.
He said minorities are more likely to be diagnosed with cancer at a
later stage, and death rates, especially for black Americans, are
significantly higher compared to white Americans.
Given these statistics, Smith said, screening and prevention become all the more vital.
To continue reading: http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE53S7PL20090429
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